As polling day approaches, Pete Morgan explores some of the issues for Labour’s loss of support 

Labour’s leadership will be nervously watching the votes from the local elections this Thursday as predictions show they are set for a drubbing. The latest poll reported by Politico says this could be, ‘the worst midterm result ever for a government, with Labour on course to lose 1,850 of the 2,558 council seats in England.’ If you add to this the predicted losses in Wales and Scotland, then Keir Starmer will wake up with a headache on 8 May with increased speculation about his leadership.

One of the key areas where Labour’s loyalty will be tested to the limit is in London, where it’s possible that Reform may make significant gains in some of the outer east London boroughs, with the Greens projected to do well in many inner-city areas. Polling research by the London School of Economics (released on 27th April) said, ‘Labour is projected to be pushed into second place in seven of the boroughs they currently control. The party now leads in fewer than half of London councils, with its vote share down by 15 points on average across the capital.’ The LSE’s Tony Travers said, ‘The result looks set to deliver the most profound change to London’s politics since the shocking result of 1968, when Labour was wiped out by the Conservatives.’

Disillusionment

Nowhere is this more evident than in the inner southwest London borough of Lambeth. Here, a combination of disillusionment with Labour nationally over the cost of living, the war in Gaza and attacks on migrants and asylum seekers, has combined with local anger over Lambeth council policies on housing and public services, which could threaten Labour’s long-standing dominance of the council.

The borough stretches southwards from the bank of the Thames and takes in the large mixed residential areas of Kennington, Vauxhall, Clapham and Brixton. It’s been under Labour’s dominance since 1998, except 2002-2006 when it was ‘no overall control.’ Labour has three MPs for the borough with Florence Eshalomi (Vauxhall and Camberwell), Bell Ribeiro-Addy (Clapham and Brixton Hill) and Helen Hayes (Dulwich and West Northwood). So for it to lose control of the council – even if it was to ‘no overall control’ – would be catastrophic.

Housing a key issue

Housing has dominated the campaign locally, which is little wonder as figures for homelessness released by Shelter at the end of last year showed Lambeth to be the third worst borough in the capital, behind Newham and Westminster. Green Party leader, Zack Polanski, raised the issue recently when he came to Brixton for a pre-election rally, arguing for ‘more council housing, decent, affordable homes and rent controls.’

The Greens are targeting Lambeth, aware that the council has done little to win friends in the borough or address the acute housing shortage. One proposed development in the centre of Brixton involves selling off the council-owned block – International House – to a property development company which is partly owned by a sovereign wealth fund. Currently, it is office space for over 100 not-for-profit community organisations and charities, yet they are set to be evicted during the refurbishment that also includes three other new tower blocks with 288 flats, of which only 98 will be dedicated to social rent affordable housing. The remaining 190 will be sold on the open market.

Reports show that there are nearly five thousand families who are in temporary accommodation in Lambeth and over 38,000 households on the council’s housing waiting list. So there is great frustration at the slow pace of dealing with the problem. The community website BrixtonBuzz reports that across six regeneration estates in Lambeth, the council is taking an average of 572 days (1.6 years) to bring empty homes, known as ‘voids’, back into use. And latest data from the Regulator of Social Housing (RSH) shows Lambeth Council is ranked fifth from bottom – 349 out of 353 social housing providers – in terms of tenant satisfaction measures.

This is not the only sore point for voters come Thursday. Parents are furious over council proposals to close three local nurseries. So parents, along with children and staff, recently staged a protest outside Lambeth Town Hall demanding Effra, Triangle and Maytree nurseries be kept open, and the council invest more money in their future. The consultation for closure has been withdrawn, but many suspect this is only temporary – and will be reintroduced after the election.

Corporate profit trumps community events

Also, there was huge disappointment recently when the Labour council decided to axe the popular Lambeth Country Show for 2026, while at the same time allowing the commercial Brockwell Live events to go ahead. Each year, large parts of Brockwell Park are fenced off for the summer months with the Council saying the money raised from the festivals helped keep the country show free. Now, even this has been cancelled with the campaign group ‘Protect Brockwell Park’ saying, ‘During May and June we are effectively locked out of the park due to a large wall that is erected over 35-50% of the park to house major commercial music events…the residents have had enough of corporate profit, and the takeover of public spaces for profit.’

So for Labour in Lambeth – and London – they are facing big problems come Thursday’s elections. The leadership in Westminster, along with many Labour councillors in London and nationwide, will be watching the results nervously. In part to see if there is a surge in support for the Greens or the Reform. But also to see how high the Labour abstention rate will be. One thing is clear, both in London and nationally, there is very little enthusiasm for Keir Starmer’s government as Thursday’s vote will show.