Lindsey German on the prime minister’s woes and the intractable crisis of the system

Politics, they say, abhors a vacuum. Yet that is exactly what exists at the centre of British government, less than two weeks before important elections, including for devolved governments in Scotland and Wales, and for all 32 London boroughs. The question of who will fill that vacuum electorally is open, but both the Greens and some left independents, and Plaid Cymru in Wales, are likely to take many Labour votes from the left, while Reform is shaping up to replace Labour across many councils. In London, we may see the unprecedented takeover of several borough councils by either the Greens or Reform.

The reasons for this go well beyond his immediate crisis over Peter Mandelson. The failure to deliver any real change for working-class people, the continuation of policies of privatisation and public spending cuts, and the complete failure to address the cost-of-living crisis which has lowered wages in real terms, all contribute to the alienation from Labour and from Starmer. The left has been persecuted and abused, with the assumption that come the next general election it would be forced to back Starmer to stop the threat of Reform. But those alienated by the right-wing policies over migration, war and refusal to tax the rich, did have somewhere else to go – and the Starmer strategy is in ruins.

As always with a scandal like that of the Mandelson appointment, it is regarded by politicians and media as something separate from the unpopular policies of the government. But the two are irrevocably linked. It is obvious that the Washington ambassadorship was the price paid to Mandelson for his support to Starmer. He was close to Morgan McSweeney, pivotal figure in Labour Together, the right-wing Labour organisation which plotted to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn and which promoted Starmer’s leadership. The clique of advisers round Starmer – most of them now departed as a result of this and other scandals – were unwavering in their determination to push Labour to the right over issues such as immigration and must take some credit for building the Greens as a left alternative.

So Mandelson and Starmer’s other woes are connected, and while this particular scandal may bring him down – evidence from McSweeney and others continues this week – it is the underlying failure of his whole project which is the cause.

Keir Starmer now has all the appearance of a puppet that has had its strings cut and is floundering around without hope of repair. There is little happening at the top of government, and the still uncounted costs of the Iran war are to come, bringing in all likelihood high inflation, job losses, climate crisis, and massive political discontent with a new cost of living crisis on top of the old one.

I find it amazing that Labour MPs, most of whom recognise how useless and damaging Starmer is to Labour, are very complacent about how and when to replace him. Their considerations are internal: how can Andy Burnham be brought back into parliament; how can he be deposed while a war is going on (even though that war is supposedly not involving British participation); how bad will the election results be? Labour can only be harmed by these delays. Votes lost to the left and right will be hard to recover in future contests. And if Starmer is left in place until September, for example, that will be a further ratchet downwards of Labour support.

However, the idea that Burnham or any other candidate can restore Labour’s fortunes permanently is false. Labour’s espousal of neoliberalism, its commitment to the free market and private industry, is costing it dear, and that cost is accelerating as the system itself goes into greater crisis. The adoption of neoliberal policies seemed the solution to an ailing capitalism from the late 1970s onwards, but its failings are widely recognised as the cause of political discontent which has led to the decline of traditional parties and the rise of the far right and the left.

The elections will reflect this polarisation, with the threat of the far right gaining considerably and what that will mean for the shape of British politics. These politics are the product of a declining and crisis-ridden capitalism, just as they were in the 1930s, with equally deadly ‘solutions’. We must do everything we can to oppose them. They gain currency partly out of the bankruptcy of the older parties, especially Labour. We also need a left alternative. Electorally this mainly means the Greens. In my ward in Hackney there are two independent socialists and a Green standing together for the three seats, and I will be giving them my vote. I wish all the left candidates standing as socialists the very best of luck.

But I have serious reservations about the Greens in particular, especially over their attitude to war and militarism, and their record in local government. I fear that they will soon disappoint those expecting fundamental change from Labour. The danger is then further demoralisation on the left. Crucially, we should see these election results not as an end in themselves but as pointing to a further deepening of left campaigning – on war, Palestine, the cost of living, the housing crisis, and against Farage’s far right and the fascists, including Tommy Robinson.

Even a cursory examination of these questions demonstrates how intractable the crisis of capitalism and imperialism is, and how little the electoral parties can address it. The role of socialists must be to agitate over all these issues, but also to argue that nothing short of the overthrow of a decaying capitalism can deal with any of them on a permanent basis.

This week: As Donald Trump continues his war on Iran, and Israel bombs Lebanon, I will be attending a trade union meeting to build for the June 20 international anti-war conference on Monday night, and speaking at a Tower Hamlets Why you should be a socialist meeting on Tuesday. On Thursday I will be speaking at the Arise festival on the eve of May Day about war and militarism. Happy May Day everyone.