Ukraine and Nato have been inexorably losing the war, but the Western imperial agenda will have to give way to realities, argues Robert Dale

Western politics since the 1990s has revolved around ‘spin’ and ‘the narrative’. In Ukraine, we are seeing what happens when wishful thinking meets material reality. Spoiler: reality holds the trump cards.

We won’t know for a while where the talks in Alaska and Washington will actually lead. And there is little point in speculating. It is fairly clear, though, that this marks the point where the leaders of the Nato states (and Ukraine) start to acknowledge that they need a way out. They may not be openly admitting that their war is lost, but actions speak louder than words. Ukraine’s rulers and their Western backers are staring military defeat in the face. 

The battlefield

The Russian armed forces have been slowly but methodically grinding their way through the last of Ukraine’s defensive lines in western Donetsk. Built since 2014, these consist of massive concrete bunkers and other fortifications. The fall of Pokrovsk is only a matter of time; the evacuation of civilians from Kramatorsk has been ordered. Russian drones and missiles are systematically destroying military bases, arms factories, and the supporting industries and infrastructure. This is a war of attrition, not movement. 

The Ukrainian armed forces are suffering very high desertion rates and horrendous casualties. Every day, Ukrainian men are bundled off the streets by army goons, dragged into minibuses and taken to the front to die. Even our lying, warmongering press now admits that some Ukrainians cheer when Russian drones strike conscription centres.

Ukraine is under martial law, with all opposition parties banned and elections suspended. So it is hard to gauge the true temperature of society. However, there are signs to be read. Recent polling shows enthusiasm for the war declining. Readiness to concede territory is growing. 

July saw the first significant anti-government demonstrations since the war began. Thousands gathered in Kiev, Lviv, Dnipro and Odessa on 22 and 23 July to protest against legislation constraining the anti-corruption agencies. Broader dissatisfaction was in the air. Chants included ‘Zelensky is the devil’ and ‘Yermak f*** off’ (Andriy Yermak being Volodymyr Zelensky’s right-hand man).

The anti-corruption agencies were created at the insistence of Zelensky’s Western backers, who were not amused by his move to rein them in. Kiev mayor Vitali Klitschko joined the demonstration there. The attempt to restrain the agencies came after investigations targeting Zelensky’s own circles, which may well have been intended to pave the way for his removal. While he has now done a U-turn on the legislation, it appears that the agencies’ wings have been clipped. The parliamentary debate on 31 July was accompanied by further demonstrations.

In early August in Vinnitsa, hundreds of protestors attempted to free about one hundred conscripted men being held in a stadium. Smaller incidents of the same kind are commonplace. Telegram channels show endless footage of groups, often women, freeing conscripts from the press gangs.

Negotiating positions

The Russian stance is fairly clear. They want an end to Nato’s eastward advance, as laid out in the draft treaty proposed by the Kremlin in autumn 2021. The very minimum appears to be recognition of Crimea and the four oblasts (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizie, Kherson) as Russian and a binding commitment never to join Nato. Ultimately, the Russian government is seeking to neutralise what it perceives as a threat from Nato. This is likely to occur, whether through a negotiated security architecture for Europe or a defeat in Ukraine that leaves the alliance in tatters.

The Ukrainian side insists on the complete restoration of the pre-2014 borders and the right to join Nato. That is not going to happen. The Russian government sees Nato’s expansion as an existential threat. It will ensure that the threat is neutralised, in Ukraine at the very least, and has the means to do so.

Ukraine proposes a ceasefire, which would allow its battered forces to regroup and reequip. Russia insists on a full peace agreement. After the West used the Minsk Accords of 2014 and 2015 to win time to rearm Ukraine, as Angela Merkel and François Hollande have both admitted, the Russians are going to want guarantees, not promises.

The West has gone all in on Ukraine. There were many opportunities to cut their losses, to take the off-ramp, such as the treaty proposal of autumn 2021, which Washington essentially ignored. Then there were the Istanbul peace talks in April 2022, where a deal was reached before UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson pulled the plug, as confirmed by participants including former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and David Arakhamia, who led Ukraine’s delegation in the talks.

And the West has lost, hands down (barring some absolutely unforeseen turn of events). On 2 July, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the EU’s chief diplomat Kaja Kallas that China cannot afford to see Russia lose its war with Ukraine (viz. Nato). That puts the kybosh on any delusions that Nato could ‘prevail’ without starting World War Three (Don’t forget, our mis-leaders are itching for war on China too).

Behind the scenes, our rulers know that the chips are down and the game is up. However, they dress it up; they are negotiating a capitulation. The alternative is a crushing military defeat. However, admitting this would cause an enormous political crisis. This is especially true for the European leaders who have nailed their colours to this shipwreck. So they drag their heels. 

None of this, incidentally, is unconnected to Gaza. It is the same imperial machine driving the dreadful events there. Ultimately, the United States and the European powers own both the Gaza genocide and the Ukraine debacle. As realisation of the utter barbarity in Gaza seeps into the broader public sphere, it will only intensify the political crisis of the Ukraine misadventure. 

Whatever you thought about the rights and wrongs of the Ukraine war at the beginning, the only purpose in continuing it now is senseless death and destruction. It is well past time to stop the flow of cash, stop the flow of arms and end the bloodshed.

Robert Dale lives in the Berlin region, where he has been active in socialist politics since the 1980s.