Jan Culley examines why Labour is facing a rout in the local elections this week

Welsh Labour looks likely to become a member of the 27 Club, arguably with less of a legacy than club members Joplin or Hendrix. The Senedd election on May 7 heralds its fate.

For over 100 years the Labour Party has been the dominant party political force in Wales due largely to its working class political identity, linked to coal mining communities and trade union strength. It regularly won the majority of seats in UK general elections. Through the Thatcher era Wales, in the main, remained Labour. Since the establishment of the Senedd in 1999, now in its 27th year, Labour has led every Welsh government, albeit, at times, in coalition.

Labour’s accelerated decline over the last two years is witnessed through its loss of votes in traditional working class areas, in the growing support for other parties, and presents a fragmented picture for the first time in over a hundred years in Wales. 

A neck and neck race

Plaid Cymru and Reform are neck and neck in the most recent polls with Welsh labour falling to third place, its vote share likely dropping more than 20% since 2021. Behind these figures is the majority message that the Welsh Government is doing badly and trust in both Welsh and UK governments is at rock bottom.

People are switching votes or disengaging entirely. Politics is a black hole with no comfortable political home to be found. In Wales a polarising move to Plaid or Reform will result in uncertainty, and no overall control if predictions are realised.

The Welsh Mood

The cost of living is the biggest recorded concern in Wales. Energy and food costs are unaffordable, and average wages are lower than in many parts of England. Stubborn child poverty is seen as one of the biggest social challenges with an estimated 31% of children affected. The legacy of industrial decline is ever present and generational. People are seeking, with little real hope, a government that can fix the problem.

Another big concern is the devolved NHS Wales with Welsh Labour seen as being directly to blame.Devolution here has meant less outsourcing, free prescriptions, free car parking at hospitals and reflects a collective, more publicly run model.  But longer waiting lists, staff shortages and a recognition of the need for an improved social care system feeds a frustration that Wales is running behind the rest.

Welsh independence across Wales is generally not seen as a solution. Views are polarised on the issue, with Plaid Cymru picking up disenchanted left of centre voters. Other smaller, but significant issues, including 20 mile an hour speed limits and promotion of the Welsh language, impact on the mood of voters.

There are regional differences across Wales. South Wales is shifting away from Labour loyalty and is volatile. West Wales is a Plaid stronghold. North Wales, with less connection to Cardiff-based politics, is more fragmented with its post-industrial areas and Welsh speaking territories. Mid-Wales is a rural swing territory. Dividing lines between these areas reflect their key concerns, whether that be to do with language and identity, rural economy, communication and transport links, or cost of living issues.

Impact of Westminster

There is a clear connection between introspective concerns and Welsh Labour’s link with Westminster. This link is an important factor in its weakened position. Although Welsh Labour governs on devolved matters, voters are not distinguishing clearly between it and UK Westminster. UK Labour is establishment politics, increasingly seen as untrustworthy and contradictory, weak despite an intensifying authoritarian approach.

And a new system on top of that

If all of that is not enough, the new Senedd voting system will likely amplify Labour’s demise.  Using a fully proportional representative and closed list system, voters across16 new ‘super’ constituencies will place one cross next to their chosen party. The number of Members of the Senedd (MSs) will go up from 60 to 96, each area having 6 MSs.

The adopted D’Hondt method favours larger parties but makes it harder for one party to dominate. Seats are allocated to the highest resulting numbers. Larger parties start with bigger vote totals, so their early quotients stay high. This gives them a head start in winning the first seats. Smaller parties come into play later, once big parties’ votes have been divided down. If there are a limited number of seats (like 6 per Welsh constituency), smaller parties may run out of opportunities. A vote for a party, not an individual, reinforces big-party advantage because voters often resort to the comfort zone of a known brand.

Party control is strengthened through the closed list system and much larger constituencies can dilute the sense of having a local representative. Being subject to a new, more complicated system that strengthens party control and weakens a local approach may well serve to add fuel to the fire of Welsh disillusion. The knock on effect post-election is yet to be understood as a majority of voters, 60% in a recent poll, don’t fully understand how the system works.

The likely result of the election will be a government which is coalition driven and one where political outcomes are less predictable. Exasperated voters may well ask ‘who is making the decisions for me?’

Who will be making the decisions?

Reform UK’s appeal in Wales is as much about mood as policy. Reform offers a simple outlet for the feeling that the system is broken, so vote against it. The collapse of traditional alternatives allows Reform to pick up disillusioned Conservative voters, frustrated non-voters and some working-class voters who previously backed Labour feeling the system isn’t working for ordinary people. A blunt communication style works well when voters are disengaged or distrustful, is more direct and less ‘political’. Reform has an anti-establishment appeal and positions itself against the mainstream, being critical of Labour Party dominance in Wales and attacking dominant parties as part of the same failing system.  Reform’s messaging, with its emphasis on national identity, appeals to a segment of voters who feel ignored by mainstream parties and believe its false blame narrative.

Labour UK’s failure as a form of left humanitarianism is a big boost for Plaid Cymru. The significant shift for Plaid from being an opposition party to governing will mean, initially at least, it will gain credibility as a parliamentary force. Plaid is trying to win power and to do that it has had to de-prioritise independence.  Independence later, run Wales better first is the pitch. Gaining disillusioned Labour voters means tackling broader centre left issues directly.In addition, a Plaid-led government would almost certainly need partners and early independence demands would make coalition deals harder.

Can an Independent candidate throw a spanner in the works?

The search for alternatives to traditional party politics in the UK is seeing the rise of independent socialist politicians. One independent community candidate fits that growing trend and is indeed standing in one of Wales’ industrial heartlands, the new super constituency of Pontypridd, Cynon and Merthyr. Beth Winter fits the profile of the new kind of independent politician: socialist, former Labour MP for Cynon Valley with strong local roots, a long background in community work and trade unionism and running explicitly as a ‘community independent’ rooted in the Valleys. 

The structural problem for her is the use of a closed-list proportional system, where voters choose parties rather than individual candidates. But a well-known local figure with a distinct vote base and a highly visible local campaign framed around grassroots, anti-establishment politics might just get there. Significantly if Beth as an independent socialist does achieve the 12% vote share needed to successfully gain a Senedd seat, will she be signifying the start of a new direction for UK parliamentary politic?

And the Greens?

Zack Polanski has clearly boosted the profile and energy of Green politics across the UK, including Wales. With its new savvy approach it has gained media attention, momentum, and a “movement” feel. In Wales, where there has been increased coverage, there is more sense that voting Green is ‘viable’ as evidenced by the Welsh Green campaign launch in Cardiff.

But Welsh Green support is mostly driven by Welsh factors. The core reasons for Green growth in Wales are local and any winning of seats will be to do with the new proportional voting system, the fragmentation of Labour’s vote and the Green’s potential role as coalition partners . 

Self-destruction

It’s hard not to feel a sense of self-destruction when analysing the recent history of Welsh Labour. The lack of resolve in challenging forces within its own Westminster partner and remaining mute as working class lives persistently worsen in Wales are central to its demise. Its ideological inability to resolve its post-industrial crisis, combined with its attempt to ameliorate democratic processes, may act as factors resulting in its suicide. Putting it simply, Labour’s long rule in Wales has ultimately failed to transform material conditions for Welsh people.