Mamdani’s victory exposes structural problems for the US right argues Chris Bambery

The election of Zohran Mamdani as mayor of New York City (NYC), with an overwhelming share of the vote, is a crucial indicator of profound changes taking place not just in NYC but in much of the United States.

What drove much of his vote were concerns, particularly among younger voters, about housing, the reality of their jobs and their living standards. Concerns familiar to their counterparts in cities across the globe.

Those concerns drove Mamdani’s vote but his support for Palestine also chimed with the popular mood. In September a poll commissioned by the New York Times found a major shift over Israel and Palestine:

“In the aftermath of the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, American voters broadly sympathized with Israelis over Palestinians, with 47 percent siding with Israel and 20 percent with Palestinians. In the new poll, 34 percent said they sided with Israel and 35 percent with Palestinians. Thirty-one percent said they were unsure or backed both equally.”

In October a poll found that 39% of Americans now say Israel was going too far in its military operation against Hamas. This was up from 31% a year before and 27% in late 2023. 59% now hold an unfavorable opinion of the Israeli government, up from 51% in early 2024.

Seventy percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents view the Palestinian people favorably, compared with 37% of Republicans and Republican leaning independents.

Those figures are a nightmare for the Democrat leadership, still reeling from Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris, the continuity candidate for Joe Biden, a President seen as implicit in the Gaza genocide. But they also present a problem for Trump.

A poll commissioned by the Washington Post in October found that nearly four in ten US Jews say Israel has committed genocide in Gaza with two-thirds having a negative view of Netanyahu.

It’s worth thinking about the fact that people who believe Israel has committed genocide in Gaza are not likely to forget that, and to consider how that will impact on attitudes to future Israeli actions.

New York City is home to the biggest Jewish population in the world outside Israel. How did they vote in last week’s mayoral election?

In the NYC mayoral election CNN’s exit poll found two thirds of the city’s Jewish population voted for independent candidate Andrew Cuomo former Governor of New York State, but that a third had voted for Mamdani. This was despite the pressure brought to bear to not vote Mamdani and, in many cases, despite his pro-Palestine position:

“Some prominent rabbis and Jewish groups took the unusual step of urging their constituents to vote against the Democratic nominee, saying his positions on Israel were disqualifying. Other Jewish voters, particularly of the younger generations, saw his views on Israel as a positive or viewed them overall as less important than his domestic policies on affordability, housing and standing up to President Donald Trump.”

The fact that so many Jewish voters ignored these siren voices has led the government of Benjamin Netanyahu to set up an Israeli state-run rebuttal unit in the US to try and turn the tide of public opinion. It will have its hands full.

Israel depends on US finance and arms. It’s unlikely that Trump and the near future leaderships of both the Republican and Democrat Parties will change their policy of uncritical support for Israel. But the shift in public opinion and Mamdani’s election will impact future leaders.

Even Trump recognised Mamdani’s win was driven by economic and social factors which apply across the country. While still labelling the new Mayor a “communist” he also responded by saying, after Mamdani’s victory:

“Day by day, we’re going to make America affordable again.”

But those words were delivered to a wealthy business crowd in Miami, Florida. That did not go unnoticed among his own MAGA (Make America Great Again) voting base.

A much more interesting response to Mamdani’s win came from Vice President J.D. Vance. He warned Republicans not to over-react to the result and then went onto say:

“We need to focus on the home front. The president has done a lot that has already paid off in lower interest rates and lower inflation, but we inherited a disaster from Joe Biden and Rome wasn’t built in a day.

We’re going to keep on working to make a decent life affordable in this country, and that’s the metric by which we’ll ultimately be judged in 2026 and beyond.”

Mark Stone of Sky News commented:

‘Two points: first, that Vance thinks that Trump needs to get back to his base. Ten months of presidential jet-setting and global-conflict-solving may have been necessary, but it won’t spell victory in the midterms next year or beyond.

The second point, Vance is so clearly in it for the long game. The “beyond” he talks about has him at its centre…

I’m not sure Vance would have chosen a Miami arena full of business leaders to mark a year since the election. The business and investment community is happy and wealthy.

I think Vance would have been with the other America, where people are feeling the squeeze still.’

Of course, Vance’s eyes are on securing the Republican nomination in the 2028 Presidential election – Trump cannot stand again. He also seems to be more attuned to the concerns of the Maga base.

Trump was elected on the promise of ending the USA’s ‘forever wars’ and using the money saved to re-build industry and jobs at home.

Ten months into his second term, Trump has bombed Iran, struck the Houthis in Yemen and killed dozens of alleged narco-terrorists in boats off the coast of Venezuela. Last weekend, he threatened to send U.S. troops “guns-a-blazing” into Nigeria to stop the killing of Christians.

He’s given up on brokering peace in Ukraine and is still arming and financing Israel.

Growing numbers of MAGA voices have shifted away from support for Israel in recent months.

On his show last week, one of them, Tucker Carlson responded to Trump’s calls for regime change in Venezuela by saying “it’s a little strange” that the US is telling another country that “‘we don’t like your leadership – leave or we’ll kill you’. But that’s what we’re doing. Is that a precedent you wanna set?”

Carlson, once a cheerleader for Trump, is much closer to the MAGA base.

He is now engaged in a media war with virulent pro-Israel commentator and influencer, Ben Shapiro.

Carlson has 16.7 million X followers and nearly 5 million YouTube subscribers. Shapiro, has almost 8 million X followers and over 7 million YouTube subscribers.

The spat broke out after Carlson interviewed white nationalist Nick Fuentes and failed to tackle him on a matter like Holocaust denial. Shapiro told viewers:

“This is how Tucker Carlson’s ideological laundering works. You bring your dirty, ugly ideologies to Tucker Carlson’s rhetorical car wash. He mixes it with some of the vestigial respect Americans have for him, from his Fox News days. And, voilà: Hideous ideas suddenly become mainstream.”

The views of both are reprehensible but they influence MAGA supporters, particularly young, white men.

The real issue is that Carlson is, like his dead friend Charlie Kirk, criticising Trump for following a ‘Make Israel Great Again’ policy rather than MAGA.

Last week another of these media influencers, Candace Owens, pitched in claiming that ‘Zionists’ who once targeted Charlie Kirk are now moving against Tucker Carlson.

Kirk and Carslon (Owens has been more critical of Trump) reflect concerns among the MAGA base over Trump continuing his predecessors support for Israel’s ‘forever wars.’ The MAGA base hates the wealthy US elite, and they hoped Trump would govern without kowtowing to them. Those hopes are dashed.

What does all this mean? It means both America’s established parties face turmoil and the long running two party system is under challenge. Neither will disappear anytime soon but these cracks open up space for those looking for an alternative. They also create opportunities for the Palestinian solidarity movement.

Of course, Mamdani might not stick to his guns and the pro-Israel groups will not give up their efforts.  But there are real opportunities in the wake of the victory in NYC.