The attack on Iran by US and Israeli forces heralds a new war against the people of the Middle East. Chris Bambery looks at this latest imperialist foray and analyses what can happen

As the dust settles on day one of the US-Israeli war on Iran what is at stake has been made clear by President Donald Trump – it’s regime change. Trump called on Iran’s civilians to rise up and ‘take over your government.’

There is no off ramp now for Trump. His, and Benjamin Netanyahu’s, war aim is the physical removal of the Islamic Republic.

This is different from any of Trump’s previous military escapades, such as the January attack on Venezuela. These were in and out operations, where the aim in Venezuela was simply the abduction of President Maduro.  That sharp, short operation was successful and allowed Trump to proclaim victory.

Last June’s attack on Iran was essentially choreographed with Tehran. The US launched one wave of attack, declared Iran’s nuclear programme was ‘obliterated’ and thus Trump again declared victory. Iran carried out one strike on a US base in the Gulf, which the Americans knew was coming, and then it all ended on the US-Iran front. Of course, the Iranian nuclear programme had not been ‘obliterated.’ If it had why is Trump attacking now.

That left Iran to Israel, and I will come back to that.

This time victory for Washington means the collapse of the Islamic Republic and the death or capture of Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. By calling for the Iranian people to rise up Trump is hoping to rekindle the mass protests which rocked the regime at the start of this year. But, firstly, the regime succeeded in crushing them, with great brutality. Secondly, given Iran’s history at the hands of US and UK imperialism it’s a big leap from protesting at the regime to actively siding with the US.

Earlier this year we saw some within Iran are so desperate they wanted the return of the vicious Pahlavi dynasty, overthrown by mass revolution in 1979. But many Iranians will be asking what Washington’s words are worth. Its track record of regime change elsewhere did not include democracy, women’s rights or a land of milk and honey. Its ally Israel openly wants to divide up Iran into competing areas, just as in Syria, removing any possible threat to its regional dominance.

Pictures of Israeli strikes on a girls’ school in the southern city of Minab, where some 80 pupils died, will only reinforce those doubts about Washington and Tel Aviv’s long term aims. If Trump is serious about regime change it’s hard to see that will be accomplished simply by air strikes. In Iraq it took a full-scale US led invasion and occupation. In Libya rebel forces on the ground took the offensive with NATO providing air support.

In Iran, Trump faces war with a state which has not disintegrated (as in the Iraqi and Libyan cases) and which has far deeper military capability. In the absence of a popular insurrection the US looks resigned to an extended campaign of air and missile strikes.

In return Iran is already targeting US assets in the Gulf, and seems to have hit the US Navy HQ in Bahrain.

Back in June Iran was engaged in talks with the US when Trump struck. Same this time, but then Iran allowed themselves to be tricked. Not this time. Then the Israelis, helped by Azerbaijan, Kurdish and Baluchi groups, had planted drones in the Iranian deserts to strike at Iranian leaders, commanders and nuclear scientists. The operation was successful before Iran gathered breath and, with Chinese help, blocked the communication system involved.

This time there has been no repeat, so far.

Which brings me to Israel. It’s Trump’s only effective ally in this war. But in June its air force stayed outside Iranian air space to launch attacks, because the US did not take down air defences. Iran then launched its ballistic missiles on Israel, forcing Netanyahu to beg Trump to end the war. Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system, even with US support, was simply overwhelmed. Today, it does not seem that Israel is better prepared. Its armed forces are not designed for the sort of long-distance war involved and it is highly vulnerable.

The big question is how long Trump will want a war. His opinion ratings are disastrous at home. US citizens must take his promise of democracy in Iran with some skepticism given events in Minneapolis and elsewhere. Trump’s presidency has so far been based on easy victories ending in excellent photo opportunities. That seems off the agenda.

Meanwhile, across the globe, states will note that Iran was negotiating with the US when it was attacked. In Moscow, Beijing and other capitals that will increase deep suspicion of Trump. Neither China nor Russia will intervene to help Iran but down the road this fresh attack will feed the belief there is only one way to respond to a school bully.

Meanwhile, the real force for peace lies, as ever, in the streets. Let’s mobilise!