Chris Bambery explores Trump’s relationships with Putin, Zelensky and Modi as the war goes badly

Vladimir Putin must be laughing all the way to the bank. After the US lifted oil sanctions for 30 days Russia is coining in an extra $125 million a day from oil sales.

 US treasury secretary Scott Bessent claimed the 30-day waiver would “not provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government”.

He said the “tailored, short-term” move would only provide Moscow with a limited financial boost from oil sales, adding that it would address the “instability posed by the terrorist Iranian regime”.

But as The Independent points out:

‘However, shipping data and surging prices suggest Moscow is set to earn up to two-thirds more this month than it did in February, potentially wiping out months of losses in a matter of weeks. Experts warn the move could see Vladimir Putin profit to the tune of $11.3bn (£8.6bn).’

Russia previously sold its sanctioned crude oil at a discount to India, which became Russia’s largest seaborne crude buyer after Western countries cut imports following the invasion of Ukraine. As recently as February India was buying Russian oil at roughly $10 below Brent, the international oil price. Then, facing a huge tariff increase by Donald Trump, prime minister Narendra Modi agreed to stop buying Russian oil.

Now India is having to buy Russian oil at approximately $5 above Brent, with Russia getting $15 a barrel extra revenue when you add the previous discount.

India’s Russian crude imports are now tracking at 1.6 million barrels a day, up from just over one million in February, and likely to rise further.

China receives around 800,000 barrels a day from Russia via pipeline, at a guaranteed price because that’s under contract. Iran is allowing tankers destined for China to proceed through the Straits of Hormuz.

Putin’s war chest

The obvious point is that Putin is building up a bigger war chest with which to prosecute the war in Ukraine, a war which is going badly for Kyiv. It will, in an increasingly unstable world with an unpredictable American president, build up its own weapons arsenal.

Scott Bessent, the man who earlier this year openly boasted he’d engineered the collapse of the Iranian currency in order to create protests, may be right in saying the waiver to Russia is only a temporary measure. But many countries who formerly relied on oil coming through the Gulf must now be thinking Russian oil is a safer bet. Before the Iran war Russia sold 93 percent of its crude to just three buyers – China, India and Türkiye – and now must be licking its lips at the thought of extra sales.

Europe, which used to buy Russian gas until Washington insisted that it stopped, must now be under pressure to do business with Putin, despite Ukraine. German Chancellor Merz and British premier Starmer have criticised the waiving of sanctions on Russia, but I think they protest too much!

China, because of this war, will return with a vengeance to building fast rail and other fixed routes westwards through Pakistan and Iran to Russia in order to provide itself with secure supply routes.

Trump and Putin speak about oil, uranium, Ukraine and intelligence

Last week, Trump and Putin spoke over the phone.

In an effort to end the war, Putin suggested Russia would take stocks of Iranian uranium, and that China would do the same. Trump rejected the offer.

Earlier Trump had said in regard to reports of Russia sharing intelligence with Tehran:

“I think he might be helping them a little bit, yeah, I guess, and he probably thinks we’re helping Ukraine, right?” Trump said, speaking to Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade in a Friday interview. “Yeah, we’re helping them also.

“So he [Putin] says that, and China would say the same thing, you know. It’s like, hey, they do it and we do it, in all fairness. They do it and we do it.”

Trump also told Putin it could “be more helpful” if he ended the war in Ukraine. There was not a snowballs chance in hell of Putin agreeing to that when he must believe victory is in his sight.

As I have said before, Ukraine now finds itself in a queue for American missile interceptors, behind the US itself, Israel and the Gulf States.

On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed concern that there could be “delays in delivering certain weapons or reductions in the volume of critical defensive supplies for us,” because of the volume of munitions being used by the US in its strikes on Iran. “The risk is very high, in my view,” he added.

Zelensky is trying to sell Ukrainian drone interceptors to the Gulf States, to the dislike of Donald Trump. “No, we don’t need (Ukraine’s) help in drone defense,” Trump said in an interview on Fox News. “We know more about drones than anybody. We have the best drones in the world, actually.”

Trump then told NBC News: “The last person we need help from is Zelensky.”

Meanwhile, a taste of the mood in the US came on Monday with this headline on a CNN article:

‘If Trump has already won the Iran war, why does he need foreign ships to help him end it?’

Pointing to the fact Trump refused Sir Keir Starmer’s earlier offer of British warships but is now requesting them and even those of China to re-open the Straits of Hormuz, CNN ask a good question.

The article goes on to point out:

‘Trump has barely prepared the country for the war, and he keeps adding to the confusion with conflicting statements. He vehemently insists that the war is already won. But he says it will end only when he feels it in his “bones.” If victory is already achieved, it’s fair to ask why American troops are still in harm’s way after 13 US deaths on active service so far.

‘The administration is also operating under a dark historical cloud. This war is not yet directly comparable to the “forever wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan. But in both those cases, early US triumphs were undermined by the political impact of the initial assault and poor understanding of foreign nations. There are enough signs in Iran to validate public concerns about a possible quagmire.’

When US mainstream media carries articles like that, it reflects the majority opposition to this war in the US. It took four or five years for them to begin criticising the Vietnam War. We are just two weeks into this war.