Chris Bambery analyses how Iran’s planned tenacity is making a mess of Trump’s hopes for a quick victory

Both Trump and Netanyahu believed that through the use of targeted assassinations to decapitate the Iranian leadership, the regime would crumble. It hasn’t.

The Iranians were expecting this. The leaders potentially in the crosshairs each had two or three replacements in line should the first one fall. This is part of the plan for a long war that would thwart Trump’s preference for a short, sharp victory. The final feature of Iranian planning involves the decentralisation their command and control system. This is called “Mosaic Defence,

‘The principle is that the chain of command can survive its links being broken because each link is an autonomous, self-regulating and motivating entity. Local leaders are given the authority, capacity and, above all, inviolable orders that they must continue to act.’

The Mosaic Defence is based on the experience of both Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, and fighters in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iranian tenacity is giving Trump nightmares because they have planned for a ground war that would retain a military infrastructure despite the superiority of US and Israeli air power.

The Revolutionary Guards have been instructed that if Iran is invaded to fight on even when their leadership is knocked out. Trump seems blissfully unaware of what he is up against and continues to climb the escalatory ladder.

Reuters reports that the US military’s next steps will involve the deployment of thousands of US troops to the Middle East, and that Washington is considering landing troops on Kharg Island, where they will be expected to clear Iranian defences facing the Straits of Hormuz.

They are also considering an operation to seize Iranian stocks of enriched uranium. All this would be very risky. If the US took Kharg Island its troops would be in easy range of Iranian drones and missiles. The other two options involve sending troops into Iran.

This would be another US forever war and would seriously undermine Trump’s already crumbling MAGA base.

Iran’s “Mosaic Defence” was deployed after Israel attacked the huge South Pars gas field. It is the Iranian sector of the world’s largest natural gas deposit, which Iran shares with Qatar. Iran responded with attacks on oil and gas installations in all the Gulf States and with further missile attacks on Israel.

We are nearly three weeks into this war, and this is not supposed to be happening.

The Iranian counter attacks that followed Israel’s attack on South Pars included hitting the Qatari state oil giant QatarEnergy, where it is estimated that 17 per cent of LNG capacity has been destroyed for the next five years at a cost of some 20 billion dollars.

Washington planned for a war lasting about a week. They never factored in the huge economic disruption Iran’s defences are causing. Now the economic impact is severe.

India imports around 20 per cent of its liquid natural gas (LNG) from Qatar, The BBC reports:

‘Most factories in Morbi, India’s ceramics hub in the western state of Gujarat, have shut down for nearly a month due to gas shortages triggered by the Iran war, according to the local manufacturers’ association.

Morbi produces about 80 per cent of India’s ceramics – mainly tiles and sanitaryware – and exports to the Middle East, Africa and Europe.

Manufacturers say they halted operations on Tuesday after supplies of propane and natural gas – key fuels for ceramics production – were squeezed. India’s ceramics industry is estimated to be worth about 750bn rupees ($8.1bn; £6bn), with Morbi at its core. The shutdown has hit around 400,000 workers linked to the sector.’

In Europe there is a growing chorus to resume oil and gas imports from Russia, despite the sanctions imposed after its invasion of Ukraine:

‘Belgium’s Prime Minister, Bart De Wever, shocked many this weekend, including members of his own coalition government, calling for the EU to normalise relations with Russia to regain access to cheap energy.’

‘It is common sense,’ he asserted. ‘In private European leaders tell me I am right, but no one dares say it out loud. You do, at times, hear deeply off-the-record mutterings from parts of German industry to this effect. The hard-right AfD party, which tops German opinion polls, calls for sanctions on Russia to be lifted immediately.’

German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has taken an unusually strong stand against sending warships to the Straits of Hormuz, telling MPs:

‘To this day, there is no convincing plan for how this operation could succeed. Washington has not consulted us and did not say European assistance was necessary.’

What a change of heart! Just weeks ago he was toadying up to Trump.

German Defence Minister, Boris Pistorius, has gone so far as to say ‘this is not our war.’ And for good reason. Polls show 58 per cent of Germans oppose the war.

When Germany, the UK, France, Italy, Australia and Canada are refusing to get involved even Trump might note that is not good news – but it hasn’t prevented him from continuing to threaten anyone who gets in his way.

Both Trump and Netanyahu seem determined to keep going up the escalatory ladder. Merz, for all his faults, and there are many, is right to say that there is “no convincing plan.”

Trump has threatened to destroy the South Pars installations completely if Iran does not stop its attacks on the Gulf States. If the war is extended to destroying oil and gas installations across the region the impact on the global economy will be immense, and Trump will risk turning huge swathes of opinion against both himself and US imperialism.

Imperialist powers always seem to make the mistake of underestimating their enemies. The inbuilt racism that lauds the superiority of their military might, and the hierarchies of power that refuse to consider, let alone respect, the capabilities of the enemy, all lead imperial humiliation.

This is exactly what the world is watching today.