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The Egyptian elite are making a counter-revolutionary thrust, but whether it works depends on the masses' reaction, says John Rees

The Egyptian ruling class have made their move.

The parliamentary elections of last year have been declared invalid by an election court, effectively dissolving parliament.

The law - passed under pressure from the revolutionary mobilisations- which banned remnants of the old regime from standing in elections, has been declared void.

This clears the way for Ahmed Shafiq, the last prime minister appointed by dictator Hosni Mubarak before his fall, to remain a candidate in Saturday’s Presidential elections.

Perhaps most dangerous of all, the old Mubarak Emergency Law giving wide repressive powers to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has been reimposed.

The Muslin Brotherhood’s Presidential candidate, Mohammed Morsi, has said that he accepts the courts decisions, but is now insisting that a vote for the Brotherhood is the only way that the revolution can be defended from the SCAF offensive. But other sections of the Brotherhood are more critical and the Parliament, with a Brotherhood majority, looks set to meet in defiance of the ban.

In electoral terms this Saturday revolutionaries have two bad options. Shafiq is SCAF’s candidate and SCAF are the core police apparatus of the old order and the essential face of counter-revolution. The Brotherhood have been compromising with SCAF for their own opportunist reasons. That has been a disastrous policy, but the Brotherhood are not the same as the Mubarak continuity state. And many Brotherhood voters want the revolution to succeed, in spite of their leaders. That is not true of Shafiq voters.

But, as so often in the Egyptian revolution, the real force that can destroy this counter-revolutionary attack is the mass mobilisations in Tahrir Square and the other squares of Egypt, fed by actions in the poorest areas and by Egypt’s workers.

The Egyptian elite aren't actually in a strong position, as Counterfire, the Guardian’s Jack Shenker and Hani Shukrullah in Al Ahram online argued after the first round of the Presidential elections. The first round saw left candidate Hamdeen Sabahy win majorities in Cairo and Alexandria. He came third overall. This demonstrated a massive resonance for the message of revolutionary Tahrir in the wider Egyptian society.

That broader base of support now needs to be mobilised in defence of the revolution. It needs to be called into Tahrir tomorrow and in the days after.

The left must now say to the Muslim Brotherhood that the time for turning every event in the revolution to their electoral advantage, no matter what the effect on the fate of the revolution as a whole, is over.

The revolution is at stake and it will take more than a vote for Morsi to defend it. Now is the time for all those who are genuinely in favour of the revolution to make a stand. And that stand must begin in Tahrir. Now.

Comments   

 
#1 teacher, CairoChris 2012-06-17 07:26
John,

Your arguments and others convinced me that revolutionaries should vote for Mursi(with no illusions). I am by the way in no party just an independent socialist who happens to be in Egypt. As far as I can make out Sabahy's party is boycotting the elections and my suggestion of pressurising Morsi to pull out was not that mad after all as I have heard this argument from some of the best fighters in the MB. Anyway you're right, the counter revolution is in full swing and I expect a victory for Shafik.This is what the recent rulings have prepared the way for, which again makes me wonder whether a vote for Mursi is that relevant given that is seems that the outcome has been stitched up by SCAF. Yes back to Tahrir, but don't forget the factories of Mahalla, to be honest this is where the revolution began a few years ago...and metaphorically this is where it will be won and lost. Not in Tahrir, though that is also important.
 
 
#2 RE: It all depends on TahrirJohn Rees 2012-06-17 08:52
Hi Chris, Thanks for this note. Yes, I think the call for Morsi to pull out definitely had traction, and all the more so after SCAF dissolved parliament. But, knowing the MB as we do, it was always unlikely that he would. Actually I think that it was even more important to vote for Morsi after the dissolution than before it (even though the elections cannot resolve the situation). This is because SCAF's actions were aimed at the MB and the divisions between (and within) the MB and SCAF have been exposed to greater tension. In these circumstances the policy that Lenin recommended towards Kerensky at the time of the Kornilov coup attempt are applicable: 'we will rest our rifles on Kerensky's shoulder to shoot at Kornilov. After we have done with Kornilov, the fewer questions about Kerensky the better!' I paraphrase from memory, but the gist is we join forces with the enemy of tomorrow to defeat the enemy of today. Yes, I saw Hamdeen's position. I worked with Hamdeen for ten years (and Morsi for that matter) in the Cairo conference and I have great respect for him and I understand why he didn't want to split his base by calling for a vote for Morsi...but its still a short-sighted decision. I agree about Tahrir...I've been saying for a while that the revolutionaries have to build a base beyond Tahrir and a strategy (and revolutionary institutions) which are more than Tahrir. And of course you are right that the workers are central to this. But some on the left have had too narrow a version of what this means ('the strikes will save us'). But working class politics in a revolution always means having a strategy for the class to become hegemonic over the whole revolutionary movement, not just a syndicalist strategy. This false polarization by the left is one reason (though not the major one) why the MB has dominated opposition politics since the fall of Mubarak. Good to talk...why don't you write us some reports as things unfold?
 
 
#3 Teacher, CairoChris 2012-06-17 14:06
OK but it sounds like you have some pretty well informed people on the ground here. I will send you my impressions of post election Cairo in a few days to the counterfire email.

By the way I think I was wrong on Shafik winning. The SCAF are not confident enough to completely rig the elections.
 

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